Sun Tzu Leading the Soberania Operation

Imagine 1978, the Beagle crisis between Argentina and Chile. Put yourself on the Argentine side. If Sun Tzu were in the Argentine High Command... what would he recommend as a course of action on December, 22nd, D-Day for the Argentine invasion of Chile?

If Sun Tzu were advising the Argentine High Command on December 22, 1978, the D-Day for the planned Argentine invasion of Chile during the Beagle Crisis, his recommendations would likely emphasize strategic deception, psychological warfare, and leveraging strengths against weaknesses to achieve victory with minimal conflict. Here’s a detailed hypothetical course of action he might suggest:

1. Strategic Deception

"All warfare is based on deception."

Disinformation Campaign: Spread false information about the timing, location, and scale of the invasion to confuse and mislead Chilean forces. This could involve feints and dummy troop movements.
Camouflage and Concealment: Use terrain and weather conditions to conceal the true positions and movements of Argentine forces.

2. Psychological Warfare

"The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting."

Propaganda: Disseminate propaganda aimed at lowering Chilean morale, possibly through leaflets, radio broadcasts, and other means.
Diplomatic Pressure: Continue diplomatic efforts to isolate Chile internationally, gaining support or at least neutrality from neighboring countries and major powers.

3. Exploiting Terrain and Weather

"Know the terrain and the weather."

Terrain Analysis: Utilize knowledge of the local terrain to launch surprise attacks where Chilean defenses are weak or unprepared.
Weather Utilization: Plan operations to take advantage of favorable weather conditions, such as fog or rain, which can obscure movements and hinder Chilean defenses.

4. Economy of Force

"He who knows when he can fight and when he cannot will be victorious."

Selective Engagement: Focus on key objectives and avoid unnecessary engagements. Concentrate forces on vital targets like command centers, supply depots, and key communication hubs.
Avoid Prolonged Engagements: Ensure that engagements are quick and decisive, minimizing the risk of a prolonged conflict which could drain resources and morale.

5. Surprise and Speed

"Attack him where he is unprepared, appear where you are not expected."

Surprise Attacks: Plan initial assaults to catch the Chilean forces off-guard, targeting weak points in their defenses.
Rapid Mobilization: Ensure that Argentine forces can move swiftly to exploit any breakthroughs and maintain momentum.

6. Logistics and Supply Lines

"The line between disorder and order lies in logistics."

Secured Supply Lines: Ensure that supply lines are secure and capable of supporting sustained operations.
Reserves and Reinforcements: Maintain reserves to exploit successes or reinforce threatened sectors.

7. Alliances and Intelligence

"Know your enemy and know yourself."

Intelligence Gathering: Invest in intelligence to understand Chilean plans, troop dispositions, and weaknesses.
Alliances and Support: Strengthen alliances and seek external support to apply pressure on Chile diplomatically and economically.

8. Post-Conflict Strategy

"Build your opponent a golden bridge to retreat across."

Clear Objectives: Define clear political and military objectives to avoid mission creep.
Negotiated Settlement: Be prepared to offer terms that allow for a negotiated settlement to prevent prolonged conflict and facilitate a stable post-war environment.

At the World's End

Sun Tzu’s approach would focus on achieving Argentine objectives through a combination of deception, speed, psychological operations, and targeted engagements. The goal would be to minimize direct confrontation and maximize the strategic impact of each move, ultimately seeking a swift and decisive resolution to the conflict.