Beagle Crisis: The Advices of Sun Tzu

Sun Tzu Leading the Soberania Operation

 

 

Imagine 1978, the Beagle crisis between Argentina and Chile. Put yourself on the Argentine side. If Sun Tzu were in the Argentine High Command... what would he recommend as a course of action on December, 22nd, D-Day for the Argentine invasion of Chile?

If Sun Tzu were advising the Argentine High Command on December 22, 1978, the D-Day for the planned Argentine invasion of Chile during the Beagle Crisis, his recommendations would likely emphasize strategic deception, psychological warfare, and leveraging strengths against weaknesses to achieve victory with minimal conflict. Here’s a detailed hypothetical course of action he might suggest:

1. Strategic Deception

"All warfare is based on deception."

• Disinformation Campaign: Spread false information about the timing, location, and scale of the invasion to confuse and mislead Chilean forces. This could involve feints and dummy troop movements.
• Camouflage and Concealment: Use terrain and weather conditions to conceal the true positions and movements of Argentine forces.

2. Psychological Warfare

"The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting."

• Propaganda: Disseminate propaganda aimed at lowering Chilean morale, possibly through leaflets, radio broadcasts, and other means.
• Diplomatic Pressure: Continue diplomatic efforts to isolate Chile internationally, gaining support or at least neutrality from neighboring countries and major powers.

3. Exploiting Terrain and Weather

"Know the terrain and the weather."

• Terrain Analysis: Utilize knowledge of the local terrain to launch surprise attacks where Chilean defenses are weak or unprepared.
• Weather Utilization: Plan operations to take advantage of favorable weather conditions, such as fog or rain, which can obscure movements and hinder Chilean defenses.

4. Economy of Force

"He who knows when he can fight and when he cannot will be victorious."

• Selective Engagement: Focus on key objectives and avoid unnecessary engagements. Concentrate forces on vital targets like command centers, supply depots, and key communication hubs.
• Avoid Prolonged Engagements: Ensure that engagements are quick and decisive, minimizing the risk of a prolonged conflict which could drain resources and morale.

5. Surprise and Speed

"Attack him where he is unprepared, appear where you are not expected."

• Surprise Attacks: Plan initial assaults to catch the Chilean forces off-guard, targeting weak points in their defenses.
• Rapid Mobilization: Ensure that Argentine forces can move swiftly to exploit any breakthroughs and maintain momentum.

6. Logistics and Supply Lines

"The line between disorder and order lies in logistics."

• Secured Supply Lines: Ensure that supply lines are secure and capable of supporting sustained operations.
• Reserves and Reinforcements: Maintain reserves to exploit successes or reinforce threatened sectors.

7. Alliances and Intelligence

"Know your enemy and know yourself."

• Intelligence Gathering: Invest in intelligence to understand Chilean plans, troop dispositions, and weaknesses.
• Alliances and Support: Strengthen alliances and seek external support to apply pressure on Chile diplomatically and economically.

8. Post-Conflict Strategy

"Build your opponent a golden bridge to retreat across."

• Clear Objectives: Define clear political and military objectives to avoid mission creep.
• Negotiated Settlement: Be prepared to offer terms that allow for a negotiated settlement to prevent prolonged conflict and facilitate a stable post-war environment.

 

At the World's End

Sun Tzu’s approach would focus on achieving Argentine objectives through a combination of deception, speed, psychological operations, and targeted engagements. The goal would be to minimize direct confrontation and maximize the strategic impact of each move, ultimately seeking a swift and decisive resolution to the conflict.

Argentina-Chile: On the Historical Mistrust

Rivalry and Mistrust Between Argentina and Chile

Argentina and Chile's historical rivalry and mutual distrust can be traced back to several key moments and events that have shaped their relationship over the centuries. This essay will explore the origins of their conflict, highlighting significant dates and events that contributed to the tension, leading up to the contemporary period.

Early Conflicts and Colonial Legacies

The roots of the Argentine-Chilean rivalry can be traced back to the colonial period when both regions were part of the Spanish Empire. During the 16th and 17th centuries, the Spanish Crown established the Viceroyalty of Peru, which included both modern-day Argentina and Chile. However, administrative divisions within the viceroyalty created early distinctions between the two regions.

In 1776, the Spanish Crown established the Viceroyalty of the Río de la Plata, which included the territory of present-day Argentina. This administrative change heightened the sense of separation and competition between Buenos Aires and Santiago, the respective capitals of the new and old viceroyalties. The different economic and political priorities of these regions sowed the seeds of future conflicts.

The Independence Wars (1810-1826)

The wars of independence from Spanish rule, which began in the early 19th century, further strained relations between Argentina and Chile. Both countries achieved independence around the same time, with Argentina declaring independence in 1816 and Chile in 1818. However, their paths to independence were intertwined with mutual suspicions and differing regional interests.

One of the pivotal moments was the crossing of the Andes by the Argentine general José de San Martín in 1817. San Martín's Army of the Andes, composed of Argentine and Chilean patriots, defeated the Spanish royalists in Chile, leading to the country's independence. Despite this shared struggle, the differing political ambitions and visions for the future of the region created underlying tensions.

The War of the Confederation (1836-1839)

A significant early conflict that exemplified the rivalry was the War of the Confederation. In the 1830s, Andrés de Santa Cruz, the President of Bolivia, formed the Peru-Bolivian Confederation, which Argentina saw as a threat to regional balance. Chile, fearing the confederation's expansionist aims, allied with Argentina against it.

The war culminated in the Battle of Yungay in 1839, where the Chilean-Argentine alliance defeated the confederation's forces. This conflict underscored the precarious balance of power in the region and established a precedent for future cooperation against common threats, but it also deepened mutual suspicions as both countries sought to expand their influence.

Border Disputes and the Boundary Treaty of 1881

Territorial disputes have been a recurring theme in the Argentine-Chilean rivalry. The most significant of these disputes arose from the unclear demarcation of borders following their independence from Spain. The Andes Mountains, which form the natural boundary between the two countries, became a focal point of contention.

In 1881, Argentina and Chile signed the Boundary Treaty, which aimed to resolve these disputes by defining the border along the highest peaks of the Andes. Despite this agreement, ambiguities in the treaty's language led to further conflicts, particularly over the Patagonian region and the Beagle Channel, areas rich in natural resources and strategically important.

The Beagle Channel Conflict (1978)

One of the most critical flashpoints in the 20th century was the Beagle Channel conflict. The Beagle Channel, a narrow strait in the southern tip of South America, became the center of a territorial dispute in the 1970s. Both Argentina and Chile claimed sovereignty over several islands in the channel, leading to a severe diplomatic and military standoff.

In 1978, the conflict nearly escalated into full-scale war. Both countries mobilized their armed forces, and a naval confrontation seemed imminent. However, intervention by Pope John Paul II, who mediated the conflict, led to the signing of the Treaty of Peace and Friendship in 1984. The treaty, which awarded most of the disputed islands to Chile, averted war but left lingering resentment in Argentina.

The Malvinas War (1982)

The Malvinas War between Argentina and the United Kingdom indirectly influenced Argentine-Chilean relations. During the war, Chile provided intelligence and logistical support to the British, further straining its relationship with Argentina. This support was motivated by Chile's desire to counterbalance Argentina's military strength and protect its own territorial claims in the region.

The aftermath of the Malvinas War saw Argentina's military regime weakened and its international standing diminished. The war's outcome also reinforced Chile's strategic calculations and its distrust of Argentina, leading to increased military readiness along their shared border.

Democratic Transitions and Modern Relations

Both Argentina and Chile transitioned to democracy in the 1980s and 1990s, which led to a gradual thawing of relations. Diplomatic efforts focused on resolving remaining territorial disputes and fostering economic cooperation. The establishment of democratic governments in both countries provided a framework for dialogue and conflict resolution.

The signing of the 1998 Ushuaia Protocol, which declared the region a zone of peace and cooperation, marked a significant step toward normalization. Joint commissions were established to address border issues, and bilateral trade agreements were signed, promoting economic integration.

Contemporary Dynamics

In recent years, Argentina and Chile have continued to work on improving their relationship, though underlying tensions persist. Both countries have engaged in regional organizations such as Mercosur and the Pacific Alliance, seeking to enhance economic ties and political cooperation.

However, issues such as competing claims in Antarctica and the ongoing need for resource management in shared territories require ongoing diplomatic efforts. The construction of the Binational Tunnel of Agua Negra, aimed at improving connectivity between the two countries, exemplifies the potential for collaboration despite historical rivalries.

Conclusion

The historical rivalry and mutual distrust between Argentina and Chile are rooted in colonial legacies, independence wars, territorial disputes, and geopolitical conflicts. Key moments such as the War of the Confederation, the Beagle Channel conflict, and the Falklands War have shaped their relationship, creating a complex dynamic of competition and cooperation. While democratic transitions and modern diplomatic efforts have improved relations, underlying tensions continue to influence their interactions. Understanding this history is crucial for appreciating the nuanced and evolving nature of Argentine-Chilean relations in the contemporary period.

 

Beagle Crisis: The Scenario of Tierra del Fuego Battleground

Beagle Crisis: Analysis of the Scenario of Local Response

 

Updated Analysis of Scenario: Argentina Took the Islands and Chile Responded in the Area

Given the updated information about the deployment and conditions of the forces involved, we can refine the analysis of the conflict scenario where Argentina seizes Picton, Lennox, and Nueva islands, and Chile responds directly in the area.

Initial Argentine Assault on the Islands

Argentine Forces Deployment:

• Naval Forces: The Argentine navy would use its surface fleet, including the Veinticinco de Mayo air carrier destroyers, frigates, and corvettes, to establish naval superiority in the Beagle Channel.
• Naval Aviation: Argentine aircraft such as the T-28 Fennec, Turbo Mentors, and Aermacchi MB 326 light-attack trainers, based at the Rio Grande naval station, would provide air support for the operation.
• Ground Forces: Amphibious forces, including marine infantry, would be deployed to assault the islands. The objective would be to quickly secure the islands, especially Nueva island, where Chilean marines are fortified.

Updated Operational Plan

1. Naval Bombardment and Blockade:

   • Argentine naval forces would begin with a coordinated bombardment of Chilean positions on Nueva island to soften defenses.
   • Surface ships would establish a blockade around the islands to prevent Chilean reinforcements from arriving by sea.

2. Air Superiority and Support:

   • Argentine T-28 Fennecs, Turbo Mentors, and Aermacchi MB 326s would conduct air strikes on Chilean fortifications and provide close air support for the landing forces.
   • A-4Q Skyhawk were deployed in the Veinticinco de Mayo air carrier.
     
   • Efforts would focus on maintaining air superiority over the channel, leveraging the compromised state of Chilean submarines and the absence of significant Chilean air assets in the immediate area.

3. Amphibious Assault:

   • Argentine marine infantry would land on Picton and Lennox islands first, securing them quickly due to the lack of significant Chilean presence.
   • The main effort would then focus on Nueva island, where 150 Chilean marines are entrenched. The initial bombardment and air strikes would aim to weaken Chilean defenses, followed by a multi-pronged amphibious assault to overwhelm the defenders.

4. Defensive Preparations:

   • Once the islands are secured, Argentine forces would establish fortified positions and prepare for a potential Chilean counteroffensive.
   • The Argentine navy would maintain the blockade and continue patrolling the area to detect and deter any Chilean naval movements.

Río Grande Naval Station (BARG) (SAWE)

Chilean Response in the Area

Chilean Forces Deployment:

• Naval Forces: With the submarine Simpson compromised, Chile's surface fleet would have to engage the Argentine navy directly. This includes deploying destroyers and frigates to challenge the blockade and attempt to retake the islands.
• Air Force: With F-5Es concentrated in Santiago, Chile's immediate air response would be limited. They would need to mobilize whatever air assets were available in the south, possibly using older aircraft or redeploying F-5Es, though this would take time.
• Ground Forces: Chilean marines on Nueva island would be the first line of defense. Any reinforcements would likely come from nearby bases but would face significant logistical challenges due to the Argentine blockade.

Potential Course of Action and Engagements

Chilean Naval Response:

• Immediate Naval Engagement: Chile would mobilize its surface fleet to engage the Argentine navy in the Beagle Channel. The objective would be to break the blockade and provide support for the marines on Nueva island.
• Tactical Challenges: The compromised state of the submarine Simpson would limit Chile's underwater capabilities, making the naval engagement primarily a surface battle. Argentine submarines Santiago del Estero and Salta, aware of Simpson's issues, would likely play a significant role in disrupting Chilean naval movements.

Air Engagements:

• Initial Air Strikes: Argentine air assets would continue to provide close air support and target any Chilean reinforcements attempting to reach the islands.
• Chilean Air Mobilization: Chile might redeploy F-5Es from Santiago, but this would take time. In the short term, they would rely on whatever air assets are available in the region, potentially utilizing older aircraft for immediate support.

Ground Counteroffensive:

• Defense of Nueva Island: The 150 Chilean marines on Nueva island would mount a determined defense. However, they would face overwhelming Argentine firepower from both naval and air strikes.
• Reinforcement Efforts: Chile would attempt to send reinforcements by sea, but the Argentine blockade and naval presence would make this difficult. Small-scale infiltration and supply missions might be attempted, but larger reinforcements would be unlikely to succeed without breaking the blockade.

A-4Qs participated in Operation "Defense and Affirmation of Sovereignty" in 1978, during the border conflict with Chile over the Lennox, Picton, and Nueva Islands (Beagle Channel crisis) deployed aboard the aircraft carrier ARA Veinticinco de Mayo, from where they carried out air patrols of armed combat, intercepting Chilean aircraft.

Outcome and Strategic Implications

Short-Term Outcome:

• Argentine Success: Given the overwhelming firepower and logistical advantages, Argentina is likely to succeed in securing the islands initially. The compromised state of Chilean submarine assets and the limited immediate air response from Chile would contribute to this success.
• High Casualties: The battle for Nueva island, in particular, would be intense and result in high casualties on both sides, especially among the entrenched Chilean marines.

Long-Term Strategic Implications:

• Prolonged Conflict: Even if Argentina secures the islands, the conflict would not necessarily end there. Chile would likely continue to seek ways to retake the islands or open new fronts elsewhere.
• Regional Tensions: The conflict would significantly heighten regional tensions, drawing in international attention and potentially involving other countries diplomatically or militarily.
• Military Readiness: Both nations would continue to mobilize and prepare for extended engagements, potentially escalating the conflict into a broader war involving multiple fronts.

In conclusion, the updated scenario analysis indicates that Argentina, leveraging its superior naval and air power and the compromised state of Chilean submarine assets, would likely succeed in its initial objective of securing the islands. However, the conflict would likely escalate, leading to prolonged engagements and heightened regional tensions. Two aspects to be taken into account: Argentine developed a complex military industry, so ammunition and small arms can be guaranteed to be provided to troops jointly with food and clothes. Chile, empoverished through decades of economical mismanagement especially during Allende's administration, was far to even compared to its neighbor.

Esteban McLaren compilation

Beagle Crisis: ORBAT of Chilean Northern Forces

Chilean ORBAT in the North of the Country

By the end of 1978, the Chilean armed forces were organized and prepared for potential conflict due to the tensions with Argentina. In the north of the country, Chile's military deployment included several key operational units across the Army, Navy, and Air Force. Here’s a list of these units based on the available information:

Chilean Army (Ejército de Chile)

The Chilean Army's northern command was responsible for defending the northern regions, which are strategic due to their proximity to Peru and Bolivia.

1. 1st Army Division (Primera División del Ejército)

   • 1st Armored Brigade (Primera Brigada Blindada)
   • 1st Infantry Brigade (Primera Brigada de Infantería)
   • 1st Artillery Group (Primer Grupo de Artillería)
   • 1st Cavalry Regiment (Regimiento de Caballería Blindada Nº 1 "Granaderos")
   • 1st Engineering Regiment (Regimiento de Ingenieros Nº 1 "Atacama")
   • 1st Communications Battalion (Batallón de Comunicaciones Nº 1)

2. 2nd Army Division (Segunda División del Ejército)

   • 2nd Infantry Brigade (Segunda Brigada de Infantería)
   • 2nd Armored Brigade (Segunda Brigada Blindada)
   • 2nd Artillery Group (Segundo Grupo de Artillería)
   • 2nd Cavalry Regiment (Regimiento de Caballería Blindada Nº 2 "Cazadores")
   • 2nd Engineering Regiment (Regimiento de Ingenieros Nº 2 "Puente Alto")
   • 2nd Communications Battalion (Batallón de Comunicaciones Nº 2)

Chilean Air Force (Fuerza Aérea de Chile)

The Chilean Air Force had several squadrons and air bases in the northern regions to provide air defense and support.

1. Air Group No. 7 (Grupo de Aviación Nº 7)

   • Base Aérea Cerro Moreno (Cerro Moreno Air Base), Antofagasta
   • Aircraft: F-5E Tiger II, T-37 Tweet trainers, and A-37 Dragonfly light attack aircraft

2. Air Group No. 8 (Grupo de Aviación Nº 8)

   • Base Aérea Los Cóndores (Los Cóndores Air Base), Iquique
   • Aircraft: F-5E Tiger II, T-37 Tweet trainers, and A-37 Dragonfly light attack aircraft

Chilean Navy (Armada de Chile)

The Chilean Navy maintained a presence in the northern coastal areas, although its primary focus was on the central and southern regions. Naval assets in the north were mainly for coastal defense and patrol duties.

1. Fourth Naval Zone (Cuarta Zona Naval)
   • Naval Base Iquique
   • Patrol Boats and Coastal Defense Units
   • Naval Infantry Detachments

Summary

The key operational units of the Chilean armed forces in the north of the country by the end of 1978 included:

• Army Units: 1st and 2nd Army Divisions with their respective brigades, regiments, and support units.
• Air Force Units: Air Group No. 7 at Cerro Moreno Air Base and Air Group No. 8 at Los Cóndores Air Base, with aircraft including F-5E Tiger II, T-37 Tweet, and A-37 Dragonfly.
• Navy Units: Fourth Naval Zone with coastal defense assets and naval infantry detachments.

These units were tasked with defending the northern regions of Chile and ensuring readiness in case of escalation with Argentina or any other regional threat.